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Blog Posts in Commodity Markets

Is Oklahoma really OK?

OK Triangle

Finally, someone is starting to pay attention to what is becoming all too obvious...the ground in Oklahoma is becoming increasingly unstable.  And the culprit, which we have all known but many have been in denial about, is a byproduct of fracking.  This morning, CNBC actually posted an insightful story on the subject, which you can read by clicking this link:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/14/oil-and-gas-industry-ensnarled-in-spate-of-oklahoma-earthquakes.html

The...Read more

Election: Who got it right?

Jim Rogers, famed investor

Not many people, including myself, expected the upset last night.  One guy did.  And he seems to always get these things right some how.  I have followed several elections in both the US and Europe and everytime he takes the opposite view of the polls, he seems to get it right.  I googled him two days ago to get his take and sure enough, he called for a Trump victory.  

The guy is Jim Rogers, famed investor, financial author, world traveler and father of 2.  

Here is a link to an article appearing in The Economic Times where they interview Rogers a day before the...Read more

Even Bigger earthquake hits Cushing, OK

UPDATE POSTED 11/8/2016:  And poof, the post earthquake gains in natural gas have now evaporated.  UNG, the largest natural gas ETF, will open this morning under its prior week lows giving back all the gains from yesterday.  Obviously, the market doesn't care about the obvious relationship between activities associated with fracking and seismic activities throughout the Red River region.  

A 5.0 magnitude earthquake hit Cushing, OK this morning, the juncture for a major oil and gas pipeline.  It got a few people's attention but the story has...Read more

Dollar forms bullish "Golden Cross" - here's how NOT to trade it

CNBC headline story of the day..."Dollar forms bullish 'golden cross' - here's how to trade it"

The article explains how whenever a 50 day moving average of an index's price crosses over the 200 day moving average, it's a signal the index is going to move further in the direction of the cross.  On this chart, we have the 50 day crossing over the 200 day three times prior to yesterday's cross over.  And how did this "can't miss" signal do?  Well, it's 0 for 3.  Last October,...Read more

CBS Marketwatch Story: "How the 'almighty' dollar will tell you where stocks are going next"

Image of the USD chart showing a parabolic rise

Should it bother us that the adjective "almighty" is used to describe the US dollar.  In America, is the dollar really more almighty than the actual Almighty?  

Here is an article just posted by the "omniscient" financial media explaining just how almighty the almighty dollar (USD) really is... 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-almighty-dollar-will-to-you-where-stocks-are-going-next-2016-10-21

In some respects, I couldn't agree more with...Read more

Update on UNG: Natural Gas finally trading in Backwardation

After how many years, I have no idea, natural gas is finally trading in backwardation.  This means the price of contracts expiring far into the future are actually trading at a discount to the spot price (or at least contracts expiring in the near term).  For example, NG Dec '16 is currently trading at 3.234.  While NG Dec '17 is trading at 3.240 which is just slightly in contango but the NG Dec '18 contract is priced at 3.057 - a decent level of backwardation.  This development has been a seemingly eternity in coming.  

...Read more

"The Investing Golden Age May be Over" - Robert Shiller

Back in February, Robert Shiller, famed author of Irrational Exuberance was interviewed on Yahoo!Finance where he made the earthshattering claim:  “The investing golden age may be over”. He starts the interview by saying, “a lot of people are holding on to old facts, old presumptions.  For example, the stock market yields 10% a year but its really expensive right now.” 

After making these claims, which I largely agree with, the...Read more

USD gets curb-stomped after the FED

The USD is declining precipitously against marjor trading partners after the FED said something or didn't say something.  Maybe they added a word or took out a word and somehow with a flick of a butterfly's wings, the USD is acting like the US is a banana republic.  (Are we really at the point where a single word changes human history?)  Of course, equities and bonds are up b/c these markets always go up after a FED announcement.  But I'd be wary.  Over the past  three quarters, USD strength has been a tailwind for all securities denominated in USD's.  So if the USD reverses course, it...Read more

Managed Futures in Mutual Funds

UPDATE:  The link in this post is no longer valid.  Please e-mail us by filling out the "Contact Us" form on this page and I'll e-mail you a copy of the report.  Please put "Managed Futures" in the subject line.

I just found this .pdf on why Managed Futures strategies fail when implemented in mutual funds.  We have long known that futures and mutual funds don't mix.  The reasoning is very complex.  This article by MA Capital Management helps explain why. 

http://macmllc.com/Managed-Futures...Read more

The Swiss decouple the Franc

Huge news from Switzerland this morning as they have decided to decouple the Franc from the Euro to end the three year-old experiment.  I can't understand all the reasons why they orginally established the link and not sure why they are decoupling now.  Obviously, its not a vote of confidence for the Euro and their German-run central bank. 

But from a technical standpoint, it means something more to the USD.  The USD has experienced a parabolic rise over the past year.  And anyone familiar with markets knows how parabolic rises play out - Eventually they crash...everytime, no...Read more

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