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Blog Posts in Market Commentary

However, there will be no poor among you...

However, there will be no poor among you, since the LORD will surely bless you in the land which the LORD your God is giving you as an inheritance to possess, if only you listen obediently to the voice of the LORD your God, to observe carefully all this commandment which I am commanding you today

Deuteronomy 15: 4-5

As I read through the Old Testament, I am reminded of just how many of our laws have some basis in the Torah (Jewish Law provided by God).  For example, there must be two witnesses to charge anyone with a...Read more

SPX on a tear

On Monday, the SPX completed the second best 15 day stretch, from interday low to interday high, in its history.  This in terms of price, not percentage game.  Over a span of 15 trading days, the index apprecaited 199 points from top to bottom.  The best stretch was 203 points in November of 2014.  This means the US stock market has added more value in the past three weeks than at any other time in history.  And prices are still not at "overbought" levels according to some key indicators like RSI.  Does it have more to run?  Perhaps.  Is now a decent time to start averaging out of the...Read more

FED's Interest rate hike and the USD

The popular view is higher interest rates should be supportive of the underlying currency.  The idea is simply that a higher yielding currency is more attractive to investors.  And given that the USD is the only major currency yielding anything, the USD should be pretty attractive right now.  

But there maybe a problem with this line of thinking.  The problem is the owners of US Treasury debt dwarfs the potential buyers of US Treasury debt.   And the owners of the debt just saw that huge pile of debt discounted.  As rates rise, the price of the underlying debt must be discounted to...Read more

SPX Confirms Bearish Head and Shoulders

I have been absent from my blog for a while as my family and I have been doing a little traveling.  And while we were on the road, we experienced a couple Old Testament wrath types of events.  First, the flooding in Texas which covered almost the entire state.  Lake Texoma as I understand it has breached the spillway twice in the last month.  And the Blanco River went up 33' in a mere 3 hours.  After a family wedding in NOLA, we hopped down to the MS coast for just a little time at the beach.  And while we were there, the water "turned to blood" as a Red Tide hit the area.  

But...Read more

The Bearish Case for Equity Markets is Building

Yesterday, the S&P 500 (SPX) closed below its 100 day moving average (DMA) for the second day in a row for the first time since last October.  And of course, the SPX had a banner day today following the short sell-off.  What does all this mean...I can't be exactly sure.  But if the stock market declines below yesterday's low before it hits new highs, then I think it will be time to start becoming more bearish.

Here is a run down of the most bearish evidence we are seeing in today's stock market.

First, let's look at the NYSE HI's vs LO's...Read more

Article Commentary: Everyone Is Fleeing Oil's Biggest Fund

This morning, Yahoo!Finance reports that Bloomberg reported that almost $1B has been withdrawn from USO, the biggest U.S. exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of oil, over the past couple of months.  The article makes two points that are both interesting and erroneous.  

1)  The Bloomberg article quotes Bloomberg Analyst Eric Balchunas saying, "The oil rebound has run out of gas and now you are seeing nervous investors with itchy trigger fingers bailing out of USO.  ...Read more

Review of Ron Paul's Interview by Porter Stansberry's The Crux

I reluctantly watched Ron Paul’s interview on Porter Stansberry’s site.  For years I’ve mistakenly hit on links to Stansberry’s site with some irresistible teaser just to be terribly disappointed when it became clear that whatever information was promised would never be delivered.  Rather, I’d have to watch some long video (which was advertised as short) or read copious amounts of drivel only to be left empty-handed.   I know a few folks who subscribe to his newsletter and swear by it but I just can’t buy into something that utilizes such chinchy tactics.  (And if his stuff was even half...Read more