We are a fee-only Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) based in Dallas, TX.  We provide an alternative investment strategy for both Main St. Investors and High Net Worth individuals.  

Blog Posts in Market Commentary

Is "OK" the new "Goldilocks"?

Back in 2007, "Goldilocks economy" was being uttered incessently by the financial media - not too hot (so as the FED would raise rates) but not too cold (so as to hurt corporate earnings).  Today, "OK" has replaced goldilocks but the idea is the exact same.  You would think Wall Street and its pundit media outlets could come up with something a little more creative than just "OK".  Eventually, the goldilocks scenario proved to be too ideal of a balancing act and the Financial Crisis ensued.  At some point the current economic data will be either better or worse than just "OK".  Read more

USD: Critical support broken

Yesterday, the USD broke down and closed below the March "Flash Crash" low.  This officially signals a change in trend in the USD.  It now has experienced a lower high and a lower low.  It could bounce off this strong area of support and rally for a bit but in time, I expect the USD to move far lower.  And I believe the the US$ (actual currency) will decline more against emerging currencies and hard assets than the USD (US dollar index which is primarily comprised of European currencies and Yen).  

Our investment thesis is simply that nothing detrimental to the US equity markets...Read more

"The Investing Golden Age May be Over" - Robert Shiller

Back in February, Robert Shiller, famed author of Irrational Exuberance was interviewed on Yahoo!Finance where he made the earthshattering claim:  “The investing golden age may be over”. He starts the interview by saying, “a lot of people are holding on to old facts, old presumptions.  For example, the stock market yields 10% a year but its really expensive right now.” 

After making these claims, which I largely agree with, the...Read more

Bill Gross' "Trade of a Lifetime"

Bill Gross has made a call to short the German Bund and in doing so has called up memories of the greatest trade of all-time - Soros' Breaking the Bank of England.  I largely agree with Gross' fundamental outlook on the Bund.  But what really impresses me about Gross is his gutsy call.  Great trades take enourmous amounts of courage because it means betting against the world.  Where does that courage come from?  Years ago, I wrote a white paper called, "The Virtues of a Great Money Manager" which explains why great trades are courageous.  The paper discusses trades by Soros (Breaking the...Read more

USD gets curb-stomped after the FED

The USD is declining precipitously against marjor trading partners after the FED said something or didn't say something.  Maybe they added a word or took out a word and somehow with a flick of a butterfly's wings, the USD is acting like the US is a banana republic.  (Are we really at the point where a single word changes human history?)  Of course, equities and bonds are up b/c these markets always go up after a FED announcement.  But I'd be wary.  Over the past  three quarters, USD strength has been a tailwind for all securities denominated in USD's.  So if the USD reverses course, it...Read more

WMT: Post earnings action confirms bearish H&S

Disclosure:  Our firm has a short-sale position in WMT that was built several weeks ago.  We continue to maintain this exposure but may close it out at anytime. 

This morning Wal-mart's (WMT) price fell below the lower trendline of a large Head and Shoulders pattern.  Most technicians believe Head and Shoulders are one of the more reliable technical patterns but they certainly are not fool proof.  Here is a picture of the pattern:

...Read more

What we are watching: The Ruble

This morning, the Ruble crashed through what we think is a critical level.  We are of the opinion that Putin is liable to not play nice with the West.  We are also concerned that he has been "playing rope-a-dope" with the US baiting us into thinking we are winning the new cold war and when the time is right he may spring some sort of surprise that impacts capital markets in a signficant way.  We can't be certain of this and we don't have any real evidence, just a gut instinct.  We are fearful that the current US Presidential adminstration is underestimating how cunning and powerful Putin...Read more

What we are watching: The USD

A cornerstone of our investment thesis is simply that something has to happen to compromise the FED’s ability to carry out QEi (infinity) in order for there to be any meaningful correction in US equities or Treasury bonds.  The most likely suspect would be an event that causes the USD to weaken.  For the past 12+ months, the USD has been on a tear.  Sentiment is overly bullish on our nation’s currency.  So bullish, the price has recently gone parabolic.  Since last May, it has carved a very impressive parabolic curve accelerating over the past month.  Below is a picture of the...Read more

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