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Maybe it's the Black Sabbath, not Swan, we should be looking towards

Long before Black Sabbath was a well known heavy metal band, it was established as a terribly dark day in the Jewish faith.  Both Temples were destroyed on the Black Sabbath.  And according to various sources, the Jewish people were expelled from England, France and Spain on the same day (different years but on the same day of the year).  

The day is the 9th of Av and typically takes place in July or August of the Gregorian Calendar.  It is referred to in the Jewish faith as Tisha B'Av.   It is a day that marks tragedy and mourning along with a shift in the balance of power.   

Here is the wikipedia page describing all the events taking place on this date in the Jewish Calendar.

And here is a link to a site which gives a Jewish perspective on the day.

So, what does this have to do with the stock market?  Well, the current high in the SPX occurred on, you guessed it, the first market day after the Black Sabbath.  The 9th of Av actually took place on Saturday, August 13th, therefore observance would be pushed back to the subsequent Sunday.  And the market peaked the following day, Monday, August 15th.

You may be quick to dismiss this as mere coincidence.  Or just plain balderdash.  I don't blame you, seems a little cra-cra to me as well.  But let's dig down a bit deeper and see what other "mere coincidences" have taken place between the Jewish calendar and the stock market.

The worst two days of the past two bear markets took place on the exact same day on the Jewish Calendar and in the exact same year of the 7 Year of Remission cycle.  The day?  Jewish New Year's eve or Elul 29 in the Year of Remission.  On this day in the Year of Remission, all debts are to be wiped clean according to the Torah.  There should be no debts in the nation of Israel by this day.  And its just a mere coindidence that twice on this day, the exact same day across a seven year cycle that has been in existance for 3400 years, is the worst day of the seven year cycle?  Mere coindidence, eh?

There has only been 3 seperate occasions where the stock market has declined in excess of 10% in a single day.  These three instances were in 1929, 1931 and 1987 (all in the last century).  And guess what...all of them overlapped the same day on the Jewish calendar.  The day is Tishri 25.  The 1987 event actually took place on Tishri 26 because the 25th was a Sunday and the markets were closed.  But essentially they took place on the same day.  The signficance of this date?  This date falls immediately after the holiest  period of the Jewish Calendar.  From Tishri 1 (Rosh Hashanah)  through Tishri 23 (Simchat Torah), there are 8 holidays including the holiest of days, Yom Kippur.  And this doesn't include Sabbaths.  With Sabbaths, there are 11 Holy days in this window, far more than any time of their calendar.  And as soon as this window of holidays wrapped up, the stock market collapses in these years.  There are several other "coincidences" about these years which I won't go into now but two of them, 1931 and 1987, fall on top of the 7 Year of Remission cycle just as 2001 and 2008 did.  

Why Tishri 25 in the last century? Then Elul 29 the past decade?  Will the Black Sabbath high hold?  I don't know.  I could never know.  The author of the article linked above sums it up perfectly for me:

What do you make of all this? Jews (and at least one Christian) see this as another confirmation of the deeply held conviction that history isn't haphazard; events – even terrible ones – are part of a Divine plan and have spiritual meaning. The message of time is that everything has a rational purpose, even though we don't understand it.