Stagflation Update - 04/30/07

By Matt McCracken - Posted on 30 April 2007

By proceeding, I acknowledge that I have read and understood the Disclaimer, Performance Reporting Disclosure and Copyright Statements . The following is an update of a post that I wrote on April 17th, 2007 regarding the probability of a Goldilocks scenario versus Stagflation. I’ll update the data on the last day of each month and repost it. The purpose of this post and subsequent updates is to objectively examine the changes in both economic and inflationary data since the Federal Reserve made the decision to quit raising rates in the Summer of 2006. (Click here to view original post.)

INFLATION DATA AUG-SEP AVE FEB-MAR AVE HOT/COLD
Core PCE 0.10% 0.30% Hot
CPI -0.10% 0.50% Hot
PPI -0.35% 1.15% Hot
Core CPI 0.20% 0.15% Neutral
CRB Energy Sub-Index -9.65% 4.89% Hot
CRB Index -2.74% 1.67% Hot
Wage Inflation 0.40% 0.48% Hot
Unemployment 4.65% 4.45% Hot
ECONOMIC DATA AUG-SEP AVE FEB-MAR AVE HOT/COLD
ISM Index 53.5 51.6 Cooling
Construction Spending 0.00% 0.25% Neutral
Consumer Spending 0.10% 0.65% Hot
New Home Sales 1.05M 0.85M Cold
Existing Home Sales 6.24M 6.41M Warm
Median Sales Price (2) $222.5K $214.9K Cold
Durable Goods Orders 3.85% 2.95% Warm
Consumer Confidence 102.4 105.6 Hot
Consumer Sentiment 86.7 86.1 Cooling

In the month of March, Inflation figures continued to heat up (CPI and PPI) while economic numbers improved slightly. Unfortunately, consumer sentiment continues to slip which is one of the better leading indicators. Action in April did nothing to dampen the threat of stagflation which will continue to make the Fed’s job increasingly difficult.

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