Performance Report: 12/31/2025
All performance data for our strategies is net of all fees and expenses. All performance data for indexes or other securities is from sources we believe to be reliable. All data is as of 12/31/2025.
Investment Strategy
MAP - Full ($500k+)
MAP - Plus
MAP - Balanced
S&P 500 Index2
Mod Alloc(AOM)2
Growth Alloc (AOR)2
Dec Return
3.7%
7.7%
3.1%
(0.5%)
0.3%
0.5%
YTD
35.7%
N/A
N/A
16.4%
13.3%
16.4%
Inception1
98.1%
N/A
N/A
132.6%
47.8%
67.9%
Sortino3
1.21
N/A
N/A
0.83
0.55
0.67
(Disclosure: We added performance figures for our new strategies solely on a month-to-month basis as any prior data will be inconsistent and potentially misleading. We will post continuous data for our full-size MAP Strategy since its inception on 5/1/2019. We use AOM and AOR as our benchmarks as they are low-cost index funds that model the exposure of the majority of retail investors. Our risk measures are aligned closely with these funds. It is important to note that individual account performance varies and your account may perform better or worse than its model. The model's performance is simply the average performance of all accounts participating in the model.)
Performance Update
What a year! Our core MAP strategy more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 as well as our benchmarks, AOR and AOM. Since inception, the gains for our MAP strategy have been nearly 50% more than AOR and doubled the returns of AOM. Just for context, according to SPIVA, 97% have underperformed on a risk-adjusted basis over the long-term which means that we are outperforming well over 97% of diversified retail investing strategies by a significant margin.
This year's outperformance is largely a result of a phenomenon that I've been waiting to develop for several years. Back in 2023, I wrote an investment thesis for my clients, which I'll gladly provide to anyone interested in reading it. My thesis, while very premature, turned out to be spot on, not in 2023, but in 2025:
I believe, based on considerable research and ongoing observation, that the Federal Reserve Board (FED) and its member banks (read: Wall Street) are deliberately suppressing “paper” commodity prices by taking a “naked-short” position in a host of commodity futures contracts. This suppression which started in 2011 has resulted in malinvestment in the physical commodity space which in turn may lead to explosive gains when the physical market for commodities overwhelms the paper market for commodities. If we can get in front of this trade, the gains in our accounts could be one of the more profitable opportunities in our lifetime.
Just this past month, silver shot higher appreciating 50% in a single month as the "paper market finally yielded to the physical market." The CME had to step in and "increase the margin requirements" to bring the rally to a halt and keep silver from melting up. Here is a series of articles attesting to the nature of the silver rally:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7412823801484234752/
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-12-30/silvers-bull-market-done-delayed-or-detonating
Throughout 2025, we often had a relatively large allocation to precious metals. While I relied on my MAP trading strategy to generate buy signals on these securities, I deliberately filled my MAP with a large number of precious metal stocks with the knowledge that a physical shortage was a real possibility. Silver was one of the top-performing securities in the capital markets this year and precious metals was the top-performing sector.
What's really surprising about the move in precious metals this year is the lack of economic catalysts supporting higher prices for precious metals. Typically, gold and silver are hedges against a decline in the USD as well as inflation. However, the USD has been range-bound for the past 6+ months trading between 96 and 100. The USD closed the year at 98.44, a level it first fell to in April of 2025. And while inflation has remained slightly above trend in 2025, CPI and other inflation measures have been ticking lower for the past few months. So this raises the question, what will gold and silver do if the USD does fall in some meaningful way and/or inflation pressures strengthen?
Market Commentary
Last month, I began my Market Commentary as follows:
To reiterate my comments from last month, the stock market is in a terribly odd spot. The fundamentals are dire, the technical landscape is bearish, my MAP system is painting a negative picture for the prospect of US equities, yet, I've somehow concluded that stocks should be up for at least the next month or so.
I base my thesis on a couple of items: First, seasonality is strongly bullish which I've alluded to. Second, when stock market indexes defy market technicals, the technicals can turn into a contrarian signal - at least for the short-term. The technicals have certainly been bearish, that's not debatable. "Technicals" is simply a term used by market professionals who use various tools to measure the behavior/sentiment of the totality of market participants. Its akin to election polling so we have a decent idea of who is likely going to win prior to the actual election. The current "stock market polling" says stocks should go down, but they aren't.
While the stock market did rally a bit into Christmas, it didn't do so in any sort of convincing way. And it gave most all of its gains back just after Christmas. We are now through the window for "The Santa Clause Rally" and US stocks haven't done all that well in what is typically the strongest period of the year. Just as I said last month, when stocks should go down but don't, it can be a contrarian indicator and it holds true in the inverse as well. The fact that stocks saw such a muted rally this month is decidely bearish. Without some sort of catalyst, I am inclined to believe stocks should see a spell of weakness in the near-term. There are a couple indicators that are forcing me to question how confident I should be that equities are vulnerable for a decline, but we've reached a point in the US equity markets where I don't think the potential reward is worth the risk. I'm far more interested in protecting profits and looking for new opportunities than I am adding risk to your accounts that may not generate meaningful profits.
Beyond US equity markets, I would like to touch on commodity markets. I am confident that the same explosive gains experienced by silver and gold this year will take place in various securities across the commodity spectrum. Starting in May of 2011, the FED and Wall Street began a proactive scheme to depress commodity prices by utilizing the paper futures market as well as other derivatives. This has led to a 15-year span of malinvestment in the commodity space. In addition to silver, other commodities have experienced a similar parabolic move. Cattle did so this past year while coffee and eggs did so in 2024. Next up is likely orange juice. Then it will be other commodities that are subject to geo-political risk such as sugar and rough rice. Oil could also be impacted at some point if the Saudi's grow tired of exchanging their oil for our dollars. A few OPEC+ members, such as the UAE, Venezuela, and Russia, have already made this controversial decision and as more of the players do so, it could substantially weaken the US$.
Conclusion
As we wrap up 2025, I find it hard to express how grateful I am. A year such as this is rewarding on its own. Being able to accomplish what we have just as hundreds of new clients have come over with Garrett has made it even sweeter. Garrett, with a massive assist from Sam, has done an incredible job of transitioning his book of business smoothly in a way that benefited all of you.
I believe 2026 may offer substantial challenges in US equity markets but it may also provide incredible opportunities in alternative assets and strategies. I'll be proactively looking for different ways to continue to grow your accounts outside of traditional equities and bonds. And I will be placing an even stronger emphasis on protecting capital to lock in the gains we've enjoyed this past year. If equity markets appear poised for gains, I won't rule out adding exposure but currently the risk:reward profile isn't attractive.
Happy New Year to all!
As always, please don't hesitate to call us at 512-553-5151 if we can be of any assistance.
Best,
Matt McCracken
1) Inception date of 4/30/2019
2) All benchmark prices and returns are obtained through IBKR's PortfolioAnalyst reporting tool. S&P 500 Index is calculated using the index price. AOM is the iShares Core 40/60 Moderate Allocation ETF. AOR is the iShares Core 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF. These benchmarks were chosen as they represent the prevailing investment strategies of retail advisors.
3) The Sortino ratio is a commonly used measure of "alpha" or the value a manager adds to a portfolio. It is similar to the Sharpe ratio. The Sortino ratio does emphasize the negative impact of downside volatility more than the Sharpe ratio which is why we use it as our primary measure of alpha.