Performance Report: 02/28/2026
All performance data for our strategies is net of all fees and expenses. All performance data for indexes or other securities is from sources we believe to be reliable. All data is as of 02/28/2026
Investment Strategy
MAP - Full ($500k+)
MAP - Plus
MAP - Balanced
S&P 500 Index2
Mod Alloc(AOM)2
Growth Alloc (AOR)2
FEB Return
4.8%
5.5%
2.9%
(0.9%)
1.5%
1.5%
YTD
20.7%
21.3%
8.8%
0.5%
2.9%
3.6%
Inception1
139.2%
N/A
N/A
137.4%
52.2%
74.0%
Sortino3
1.51
N/A
N/A
0.82
0.59
0.72
(Disclosure: We added performance figures for our new strategies solely on a month-to-month basis as any prior data will be inconsistent and potentially misleading. We will post continuous data for our full-size MAP Strategy since its inception on 5/1/2019. We use AOM and AOR as our benchmarks as they are low-cost index funds that model the exposure of the majority of retail investors. Our risk measures are aligned closely with these funds. It is important to note that individual account performance varies and your account may perform better or worse than its model. The model's performance is simply the average performance of all accounts participating in the model.)
Performance Update
We had another really good month in February and we are having a banner year thus far. That's the good news. The bad news is March has gotten off to a rough start forfeiting some of our February gains but our YTD returns are still unmatched.
There are some highlights I want to address. Let me begin with the remarkable job our MAP system has done at identifying low-risk entry points across starkly different market environments.
On the surface, you'll see that we had an incredible January and February. But if one does a deeper dive, our performance is even more impressive. The reason being is simply that the gains in February were generated in an entirely different way then the gains in December and January. In December and January, our gains were a result of "Momentum Investing". It amounts to buying stocks that are experiencing positive momentum, often defined by a series of higher highs and higher lows. However, in February, our gains were largely a result of "Mean-Reversion", which is contrary to momentum investing. Another way to think of Mean-Reversion is "Buying Low and Selling High". Few trading algos can successfully accomplish both. Yet, our MAP system has been able to do so.
Starting in January, my MAP system started issuing buy signals using its mean-reversion tools. Rather than buying securities that were trending higher (i.e. Momentum Trading), I started buying securities, specifically in the oil and gas space, that were trading near multi-month lows. At the time, it was a challenge to build these positions as I had little interest in assuming additional risk. But, I remained vigilent and we profited handsomely from doing so. Ultimately, we were able to enjoy profits from a sector that was deeply out of favor just a few weeks ago.
When I started buying energy names, I had no idea that our nation would invade Iran causing oil prices to skyrocket. But the stock market did know. It started to price in the invasion about 8 weeks ago when energy stocks were strongly out of favor. And with our MAP system, we were able to ride the wave higher in oil and gas stocks.
Forward Strategy
Now we get to the not-so-good news. My MAP system is forecasting lower prices in US equity markets. The system is not perfect and prices could continue higher but I'm inclined to proceed with great caution. Every day, we are receiving additional input that could change our outlook. But for now, we're going to sit in a lot of cash, a lot of short-term US treasuries, and some hard assets.
Legendary investor Jim Rogers famously explained why he was so successful, in saying, "I wait for there to be a pile of money sitting in the corner and then I go pick it up." Back in December, there was a large pile of money sitting in the corner for us in the form of precious metals. The energy play that started in January wasn't quite as obvious but it was compelling. Right now, I don't see any money sitting in the corner. At some point, hopefully soon, the MAP will identify another pile of money for us, but for the time being, there isn't anything that is compelling. I suspect, without any new developments, we'll be sidelined for a while. Over time, we'll come across an unlimited number of low-risk opportunities, but for now, I plan to simply hold onto our gains.
Conclusion
I'll reiterate what I wrote last month, "Offense wins games but defense wins championships". I will continue to be vigilant in managing risk above all else. Equity markets have fallen in three of the past six years during the month of February and March. Holding cash and risk-free US Treasuries seems prudent. I'll keep looking for opportunities in the alternative space (i.e. commodities, foreign bonds, currencies, ect.) but I expect to play it safe for a little while.
As always, please don't hesitate to call us at 512-553-5151 if we can be of any assistance.
Best,
Matt McCracken
1) Inception date of 4/30/2019
2) All benchmark prices and returns are obtained through IBKR's PortfolioAnalyst reporting tool. S&P 500 Index is calculated using the index price. AOM is the iShares Core 40/60 Moderate Allocation ETF. AOR is the iShares Core 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF. These benchmarks were chosen as they represent the prevailing investment strategies of retail advisors.
3) The Sortino ratio is a commonly used measure of "alpha" or the value a manager adds to a portfolio. It is similar to the Sharpe ratio. The Sortino ratio does emphasize the negative impact of downside volatility more than the Sharpe ratio which is why we use it as our primary measure of alpha.