Performance Report: 09/30/2025
All performance data for our strategies is net of all fees and expenses. All performance data for indexes or other securities is from sources we believe to be reliable. All data is as of 09/30/2025.
Investment Strategy
MAP - Full ($500k+)
MAP - Plus
MAP - Balanced
S&P 500 Index2
Mod Alloc(AOM)2
Growth Alloc (AOR)2
July Return
6.8%
8.3%
2.4%
3.5%
2.1%
2.5%
YTD
26.8%
N/A
N/A
13.7%
11.7%
14.4%
Inception1
88.3%
N/A
N/A
127.03%
44.9%
64.0%
Sortino3
1.14
N/A
N/A
0.84
0.53
0.66
(Disclosure: We added performance figures for our new strategies solely on a month-to-month basis as any prior data will be inconsistent and potentially misleading. We will post continuous data for our full-size MAP Strategy since its inception on 5/1/2019. We use AOM and AOR as our benchmarks as they are low-cost index funds that model the exposure of the majority of retail investors. Our risk measures are aligned closely with these funds. It is important to note that individual account performance varies and your account may perform better or worse than its model. The model's performance is simply the average performance of all accounts participating in the model.)
Performance Update
September was an incredibly good month for all our strategies, clocking returns that were more than twice our benchmarks while adding to our already remarkable YTD gains. Given that, it is probably time to start getting defensive and locking in our profits as best I can. My MAP system is doing a terrific job of identifying what securities are seeing a higher level of inflows which typically leads to outperformance. I'll largely rely on the MAP to identify an exit strategy for our positions, as it identifies either waning inflows or apparent outflows.
Market Commentary
Last month, I wrote a considerable essay on how incredibly resilient the stock market has been over the past 15+ years. Here are a couple of the salient points:
All is well as long as the FED can continue to print an unlimited amount of funds to stuff into the capital markets keeping prices headed higher. And wow has it worked. Since the advent of QE in November of 2010, the US economy has not suffered a recession outside of the Covid panic. That is truly remarkable. 15 years without a major economic setback. Several years ago, a well-regarded economist named Harry Dent claimed that the US economy would be in ruins by now due to the eventual decline associated with Baby Boomers exiting their peak spending years. Lots and lots of really smart people have conveyed various ideas as to why the US economy would be suffering at this point in time. But apparently, no one informed the stock market.
I went on to say:
In the short-term, equities do look vulnerable, which I've conveyed in my past few updates. My MAP system is decidedly bearish on large-cap ETFs like SPY and QQQ. But that doesn't mean that stocks won't continue higher, it is just the odds of them doing so are lower than normal.
And the stock market has continued to push higher establishing a series of new all-time highs in spite of so many contradictory developments. Which has come to be expected. So, should we expect more of the same going forward? Obviously, I don't know. But I have confidence that our MAP system will be able to either identify waning momentum or execute stop/losses for our current positions.
Of course, I have to touch on the increasing odds of an extended government shutdown. There is a lot of media attention dedicated to the subject and how it may or may not impact your finances. In the past, the long-term impact of a government shutdown hasn't lived up to the hype. Typically, the reaction by the stock market has been negligible despite the fearmongering by the financial media. But this time, there seems to be very little hype about the inevitable shutdown which could prove to be a contrarian indicator. In the past, the media has always made it sound as if there is impending doom as a result of shutdown, but that impending doom never came. Maybe the one time they don't hype it up, the impending doom will actually take place?
I would argue the key items to watch will be the reaction in the currency markets (i.e. does the USD drop precipitously), the reaction of the US Treasury market (i.e. do rates go up), and, finally, the reaction of the ever-important junk bond market. As I've stated in the past, if the economy is going to sour, junk bonds should be the first thing investors dump. At this junction, the junk bond market is showing a slight bearish divergence, but it is far too slight to make any sort of conclusive decision. I'm keeping an eye on it and, if junk bonds weaken, it may be a precurser to a large downturn in US equities. Thus far, neither the US Treasury market or currency markets have shown any sort of knee-jerk reaction to the shutdown. For now, "all is well."
I do firmly believe that the only way a government shutdown has a long-term negative impact on the equity markets is if it somehow "hamstrings" the FED. The current valuation for the equity markets is beyond any point in history which is a direct testament to the efforts by our nation's central bank to continuously support equity prices. If the FED cannot be as decisive in its efforts to do so, it will catch the majority of investors and the entire derivatives market in the lurch. Things could get really ugly, really fast. But thus far, the FED has "taken on all comers" and won decisively. I don't expect it to be different this time, but I will try my best to be prepared if it is.
Conclusion
The run we've had the past few months has been a lot of fun to watch, and I feel blessed to be navigating the markets in such a fashion. I'm also getting very antsy about our gains and looking to lock them in at an appropriate time. I'm determined to follow the largely objective signals of my MAP system which is still highly bullish on the real asset space which is driving our returns higher. Our larger-than-normal allocation to the precious metals this year has helped. In addition, our exposure to uranium and rare earths has been beneficial as well. If and when things start to turn and move against us, I have confidence my risk management techniques will lock in the majority of our gains.
As always, please don't hesitate to call us at 512-553-5151 if we can be of any assistance.
Best,
Matt McCracken
1) Inception date of 4/30/2019
2) All benchmark prices and returns are obtained through IBKR's PortfolioAnalyst reporting tool. S&P 500 Index is calculated using the index price. AOM is the iShares Core 40/60 Moderate Allocation ETF. AOR is the iShares Core 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF. These benchmarks were chosen as they represent the prevailing investment strategies of retail advisors.
3) The Sortino ratio is a commonly used measure of "alpha" or the value a manager adds to a portfolio. It is similar to the Sharpe ratio. The Sortino ratio does emphasize the negative impact of downside volatility more than the Sharpe ratio which is why we use it as our primary measure of alpha.