Market Commentary Blog Posts

December 18, 2015 by Matt McCracken
On January 13th of this year, I wrote a post called Great Day to Buy Oil? It wasn't the lowest close in oil in Q1 but darn close to it. And it turned out to be a great day to "trade" oil on the long side as it shot up over 31% in the next five...Read more
July 6, 2015 by Matt McCracken
Headline from Yahoo!Finance this morning: The Latest: Tsipras calls Putin in wake of referendum result Over the last few weeks, the courtship between Russia and Greece has heated up. While Greece's failure to pay their debts may not impact the US...Read more
May 29, 2015 by Matt McCracken
This morning, Yahoo!Finance reports that Bloomberg reported that almost $1B has been withdrawn from USO, the biggest U.S. exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of oil, over the past couple of months . The article makes two points that are both...Read more
May 19, 2015 by Matt McCracken
Bill Gross has made a call to short the German Bund and in doing so has called up memories of the greatest trade of all-time - Soros' Breaking the Bank of England. I largely agree with Gross' fundamental outlook on the Bund. But what really...Read more
May 13, 2015 by Matt McCracken
I reluctantly watched Ron Paul’s interview on Porter Stansberry’s site. For years I’ve mistakenly hit on links to Stansberry’s site with some irresistible teaser just to be terribly disappointed when it became clear that whatever information was...Read more
April 17, 2015 by Matt McCracken
For quite some time, I have argued that the stock market is relatively expensive by historical standards and will therefore experience below average returns for the next decade. Recently, I developed a new and very simplistic means of calculating...Read more
March 19, 2015 by Matt McCracken
The USD is declining precipitously against marjor trading partners after the FED said something or didn't say something. Maybe they added a word or took out a word and somehow with a flick of a butterfly's wings, the USD is acting like the US is a...Read more
March 19, 2015 by Matt McCracken
Each morning, I recieve the Daily Texts from the Moravian Church . I thought one of the versus' quoted today was apropos in light of Janet Yellen's testimony this week: "Woe to him who piles up stolen goods and makes himself wealthy by extortion!...Read more
February 23, 2015 by Matt McCracken
The headline story on Bloomberg yesterday was titled, "In yellen we trust is Bond Mantra as Inflation Dismissed.” This story line is obviously a play on the American patriotic motto “In God we Trust”. So in the minds of investors, has the FED...Read more